It's Oscar 2000!
Who will win the statues this year?

By R. Scott Bolton

    It’s time for that little bald gold guy! The Oscar nominations have been announced, the nominees have been informed, the snubs have been recorded (no Jim Carrey?! And what happened to "Being John Malkovich"?). From now until Sunday, March 26, when the winners are announced, every Tom, Dick and Harry will be putting their two cents in as to who the winners will be.

    Make that Tom, Dick, Harry and R. Scott, because here comes my Oscar analysis for 2000:

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The supporting categories are always tough and this year is no exception. Catherine Keener was very good in "Being John Malkovich" but I wouldn’t call her Oscar-worthy. Angelina Jolie has certainly come a long way since she exploded onto the screen a short while ago but I’m not sure it’s Oscar time for her either ... yet. Jolie has certainly proven herself to be a fine actress. Toni Collette was good throughout "The Sixth Sense" but was absolutely brilliant in the scene where her son reveals his visions to her and Samantha Morton was stunning in "Sweet and Lowdown" but my guess would be that Chloe Sevigny will win the Oscar for "Boys Don’t Cry" based not only on her very strong performance but also buoyed by the Best Actress-nominated performance by Hillary Swank (more on Swank later).

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Probably the toughest category this year because every single nominee is worthy of winning. Michael Caine was powerful in "The Cider House Rules" and won the Screen Actor's Guild Award for his performance. Tom Cruise took his craft to another level in "Magnolia." Michael Clark Duncan brought Stephen King’s character to absolute reality in "The Green Mile." Jude Law shone in "The Talented Mr. Ripley." And Haley Joel Osment made us believe he saw dead people in "The Sixth Sense." Normally, I’d say that Oscars shouldn’t go to children, whose performances are often more a collection of captured moments than an actual acting performance but Osment has my vote here. His performance in "The Sixth Sense" was nothing short of terrific. Tom Cruise also has a shot here; his performance in "Magnolia" was unlike anything he’s done before. But don't rule out Michael Caine, whose SAG win also gives him serious possibilities. (I told you this was a hard category).

ACTRESS

Another collection of terrific performances here but there is one that truly stands out. Hillary Swank’s performance in "Boys Don’t Cry" expanded the scope of the entire film and resonates with emotion. I predict she will win the Oscar. Annette Bening may also score here, judging from how well "American Beauty" scored at the SAG Awards (Bening won there as well). Meryl Streep, the Queen of Oscar nominations, was brilliant in "Music of the Heart" but Academy voters may assume she’s already received her due. Julianne Moore was terrific in "The End of the Affair" and Janet McTeer has won accolades for her performance in "Tumbleweeds" but I still think Hillary Swank will win the statue. 

ACTOR

Every performance in the Actor category deserves recognition, but we’ve got to pick one. I predict that Denzel Washington will win the Oscar for his performance as Hurricane Carter in "The Hurricane." Denzel is well-respected in Hollywood and with good cause. He’s a talented gentleman who is excellent in every thing he does. His heartfelt performance in "The Hurricane" will likely earn him the Oscar. If not, Kevin Spacey will probably pick up the award, especially since "American Beauty" did so well at the SAG Awards. Remember, the Motion Picture Academy is made up mostly of actors. Russell Crowe was almost unrecognizable in his role for "The Insider" but Academy members may not think Crowe has earned his due. Richard Farnsworth certainly has, but, sadly, "The Straight Story" wasn’t seen by many people. The same may be true of Sean Penn’s performance in "Sweet and Lowdown."

DIRECTOR

An interesting category in that one of the nominated films, "Being John Malkovich," did not earn a Best Picture nomination. Talk about your snubs. "Being John Malkovich" was one of 1999s best and most original films and director Spike Jonze was the film's driving force. Traditionally, the Best Director and Best Picture trophies go hand in hand so you can probably rule Jonze out. Too bad. "The Cider House Rules’" Lasse Halstrom has generated a lot of post-nomination buzz and he may have a shot here. "The Insider’s" Michael Mann will probably not go home with a trophy either. M. Night Shyamalan may win the award for "The Sixth Sense" because the film was so beloved by those who made it the #2 box office grosser of 1999 and for that surprise ending that took most people completely offguard. But Sam Mendes should win here for "American Beauty," a film so unique in its style and content and so tightly woven that it should be recognized here and elsewhere by the Academy as the Best of 1999.

PICTURE

As I revealed above, I think "American Beauty" should win the Oscar for Best Picture. The film was brilliantly written, perfectly paced, performed with wit and verve and directed with an eye for perfection. Unfortunately, I think that "The Sixth Sense" has as much chance of winning, simply because it charmed audiences in such huge numbers. Don’t get me wrong: "The Sixth Sense" is a great movie; but it didn’t advance the art of filmmaking the way that "American Beauty" does. Of the other nominees, "The Cider House Rules" may prove to be the big surprise here. Its post-nomination buzz far outshines any other film. "The Green Mile" is a longshot, despite the presence of Tom Hanks; some Academy members just refuse to accept fantasy as quality. And "The Insider" was perhaps too grim and gritty to be chosen as Best of 1999.

Anyway, those are my predictions - what are yours? Write us at rsb@videoverdicts.com.