ACADEMY AWARDS 2003
Deja Vu: Is it the year of the musical?

By R. Scott Bolton

My postscript in RED

    After my dismal prediction performance last year, (only 50%!) I have taken the liberty of waiting to post my Oscar predictions until a scant week before the final awards are announced. Why? Because prediction is all about the buzz and the buzz is at it's fever pitch now.

I scored 50% last year. Guess what? I'm at 50% again this year. Hey, at least I'm consistent. Still, I couldn't be happier. This year's Academy Awards Show was the best in years. It was classy, respectable and full of surprises. Steve Martin was pure gold. With the exception of Michael Moore's heavy-handed political statement, I'd say the show was near perfect.  

So, without further adieu, following are my Oscar winner predictions for next week's Award Presentation:

The nominees for Supporting Actress are:
Kathy Bates - "About Schmidt"
Julianne Moore - "The Hours"
Queen Latifah - "Chicago"
Meryl Streep - "Adaptation"
Catherine Zeta-Jones - "Chicago"

If I had posted my predictions back when these nominations were announced, I would have gone with Julianne Moore in a heartbeat. It seems that all last year, Julianne was the only one we were hearing about. And she's due. Since that time, however, the buzz has been directed at Meryl Streep instead. Streep was terrific in "Adaptation," and she is one of Oscar's favorites. Her genuinely grateful acceptance speech at the Golden Globe Awards will help her, too. That being said, I'd just like to note that this year's batch of Supporting Actress nominees is absolutely stunning, and each and every one of them is worthy of the Award.

At least I gave myself a disclaimer here. See that last sentence: "...every one of them is worthy of the Award." I meant that, too, and couldn't be happier that Catherine Zeta Jones, who was stunning in "Chicago," took home the Award. 0 for 1.

The nominees for Supporting Actor are:
Chris Cooper - "Adaptation"
Ed Harris - "The Hours"
Paul Newman - "Road to Perdition"
John C. Reilly - "Chicago"
Christopher Walken - "Catch Me If You Can"

Again, if you had asked me at nomination time, I would have instantly chosen Paul Newman for his powerful performance in "Road to Perdition." Newman is a veteran movie star who has garnered the deserved respect of someone who is a master of his craft. That was then, however, and this is now. Today, the buzz is with either Chris Cooper, for "Adaptation," or Christopher Walken in "Catch Me If You Can." Both were excellent, but I'll give Cooper the edge, especially since once you've seen him out of character, you realize how great he was in "Adaptation."

Whoo-hooo! I shoot, I score! That's right, I chose Chris Cooper and Cooper won the Award. I'm one for 2; 50% already! I'm da Oscar man!! The bad news? During our annual Oscar party, I checked Walken's name on my ballot. Cost me $20.

The nominees for Best Actress are:
Salma Hayek - "Frida"
Nicole Kidman - "The Hours"
Diane Lane - "Unfaithful"
Julianne Moore - "Far From Heaven"
Renee Zellweger - "Chicago" 

A tough one, this category, as it seems to be almost every year. Salma Hayek's perseverance made "Frida" possible and her performance is one of the film's strengths. Diane Lane gathered glorious raves for her sexy performance in "Unfaithful." Julianne Moore, riding the buzz train all year, scored in "Far From Heaven." Renee Zellweger was the heart and soul behind "Chicago." My guess is that it'll be Nicole Kidman's year for her performance in "The Hours." The only thing hurting her are those who said her performance was hidden behind a prosthetic nose. But Kidman's better than that, as last year's "Moulin Rouge" proved, and I think she'll take home the Oscar.

That's right! Two in a row! Kidman won here. "By a nose," as Denzel said. I'm up to two out of three - almost 17% above last year's score already. On a roll!! 

The nominees for Best Actor are:
Adrien Brody - "The Pianist"
Nicolas Cage - "Adaptation"
Michael Caine - "The Quiet American"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Gangs of New York"
Jack Nicholson - "About Schmidt"

This is the only Award I was sure of from nomination time to Award time. Jack Nicholson will win for "About Schmidt." That isn't to say he doesn't stand some stiff competition: Daniel Day-Lewis won the SAG Award for "Gangs of New York" and Nicolas Cage is garnering some of his best reviews ever for his pitch-perfect performance as a pair of brothers in "Adaptation." Adrien Brody has the advantage of being terrific in one of the year's smaller, but most critically-acclaimed film, "The Pianist," and Michael Caine once again scored in "The Quiet American." Still, Nicholson reminds us every couple of years why he's a legend and this year, it was "About Schmidt" that gave us that little nudge. 

Yeah, I was so "sure" Jack Nicholson was gonna win I was wrong! Adrien Brody took home this award, beating out veterans Michael Caine and Jack Nicholson, one of Nicolas Cage's greatest performances ever and a Scorsese-directed Daniel Day-Lewis. I don't know of anyone who predicted this win and it was one of the night's nicest surprises. Plus, Brody's acceptance speech was genuine and touching. And he got to kiss Halle Berry, lucky stiff. Bad news: I'm back down to 50%.

The nominees for Best Director are:
"Chicago" - Rob Marshall
"Gangs of New York" - Martin Scorsese
"The Hours" - Stephen Daldry
"The Pianist" - Roman Polanski
"Talk to Her" - Pedro Almodovar

Another tricky category, because film history sticks its head in. Last year, we were told that "Moulin Rouge" would re-vitalize the musical for film. I disagreed. However, I think "Chicago" does just that. However, it's director Rob Marshall's first film and the style of "Chicago" is very Bob Fosse-esque. It may seem to some voters that it's too early to honor Marshall and that perhaps he had "help" from the late Fosse. Martin Scorsese and Roman Polanski are the veterans here with Scorsese only partially scoring with "Gangs of New York," which many consider to be one of his weaker films and with Polanski hitting it out of the park with "The Pianist," which many consider to be one of his finest films. The less-than-across-the-board critical success of "Gangs of New York" may hurt Scorsese but the fact that he's never won may help. The fact that Polanski is basically on the run from U.S. authorities will probably hurt his Oscar-winning chances. Stephen Daldry's "The Hours" was a little drier than Academy Members may have liked and Pedro Almodovar, a terrific director, finally got the recognition he deserves; but it will probably not go past the nomination stage. All told, I'll take Scorsese for "Gangs of New York," due to his status as one of film's most-respected, but unawarded (Academy-wise) directors. If I were voting, however, I'd give it to Marshall for making "Chicago" play so well on the screen.

Bad news for me again. Apparently, I was wrong - Polanski's criminal past didn't have any effect on his chances of winning the Oscar. Oh, well. The Oscars aren't about law and order anyway. They're about artistic achievement. No matter what you may think about Mr. Polanski, the fact remains that he's a hell of a filmmaker. By the way, my count is now 40%. Ouch!

The nominees for Best Picture are:
"Chicago" - Martin Richards, Producer
"Gangs of New York" - Alberto Grimaldi and Harvey Weinstein, Producers
"The Hours" - Scott Rudin and Robert Fox, Producers
"The Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers" - Barrie M. Osborne, Fran Walsh and Peter Jackson, Producers
"The Pianist" - Roman Polanski, Robert Benmussa and Alain Sarde, Producers

This is probably the easiest one: I'll take "Chicago" as the winner. "Chicago" did what "Moulin Rouge" only attempted: It made the movie musical fresh and vital again. And the cast stunned with every turn: From Richard Gere to Catherine Zeta-Jones to Queen Latifah - these are people you might not have expected to score in a musical, but they scored and then some. "Gangs of New York," as mentioned above, is not considered by most to be Martin Scorsese's best picture, and he's had some big ones ("Raging Bull,") that have never won the Big Award. "The Hours," although widely acclaimed, is also considered a bit of a snooze. "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" is a truly great, epic motion picture, but it doesn't rate quite as high as its predecessor, which added to the action and fantasy a genuine dose of heart. And "The Pianist" probably wasn't seen by as many people as the others and, again, probably suffers from the Polanski stigma.

I was sweatin' bullets by the time this Award came around. With "The Pianist" picking up surprising wins at Director and Best Actor, I thought the Academy might go with that film here as well. After a terrific intro by Michael and Kirk Douglas, "Chicago" was announced as the winner.

My final total: 50%. Again, at least I'm consistent.

That's it. Those are my predictions for the Top Six Awards. Check back next week and let's see how I did...

A complete list of nominees follows:

PICTURE:
"Chicago" - Martin Richards, Producer
"Gangs of New York" - Alberto Grimaldi and Harvey Weinstein, Producers
"The Hours" - Scott Rudin and Robert Fox, Producers
"The Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers" - Barrie M. Osborne, Fran Walsh and Peter Jackson, Producers
"The Pianist" - Roman Polanski, Robert Benmussa and Alain Sarde, Producers

ACTOR:
Adrien Brody - "The Pianist"
Nicolas Cage - "Adaptation"
Michael Caine - "The Quiet American"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Gangs of New York"
Jack Nicholson - "About Schmidt"

ACTRESS:
Salma Hayek - "Frida"
Nicole Kidman - "The Hours"
Diane Lane - "Unfaithful"
Julianne Moore - "Far From Heaven"
Renee Zellweger - "Chicago" 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Kathy Bates - "About Schmidt"
Julianne Moore - "The Hours"
Queen Latifah - "Chicago"
Meryl Streep - "Adaptation"
Catherine Zeta-Jones - "Chicago"

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Chris Cooper - "Adaptation"
Ed Harris - "The Hours"
Paul Newman - "Road to Perdition"
John C. Reilly - "Chicago"
Christopher Walken - "Catch Me If You Can"

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
"About a Boy" - Screenplay by Peter Hedges and Chris & Paul Weitz
"Adaptation" - Screenplay by Charlie and Donald Kaufman
"Chicago" - Screenplay by Bill Condon
"The Hours" - Screenplay by David Hare
"The Pianist" - Screenplay by Ronald Harwood

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
"Far From Heaven" - Written by Todd Haynes
"Gangs of New York" - Screenplay by Jay Cocks and Steve Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan, Story by Jack Cocks
"My Big Fat Greek Wedding" - Written by Nia Vardalos
"Talk to Her" - Written by Pedro Almodovar
"Y Tu Mama Tambien" - Written by Carlos Cuaron and Alfonso Cuaron

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
"Chicago" - Rob Marshall
"Gangs of New York" - Martin Scorsese
"The Hours" - Stephen Daldry
"The Pianist" - Roman Polanski
"Talk to Her" - Pedro Almodovar

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
"Ice Age" - Chris Wedge
"Lilo & Stitch" - Chris Sanders
"Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron" - Jeffrey Katzenberg
"Spirited Away" - Hayao Miyazaki
"Treasure Planet" - Ron Clements

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION:
"Chicago" - Art Direction: John Myhre, Set Decoration: Gord Sim
"Frida" - Art Direction: Felipe Fernandez del Paso, Set Decoration: Hannia Robledo
"Gangs of New York" - Art Direction: Dante Ferretti, Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" - Art Direction: Grant Major, Set Decoration: Dan Hennah and Alan Lee
"Road to Perdition" - Art Direction: Dennis Gassner, Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
"Chicago" - Dion Beebe
"Far From Heaven" - Edward Lachman
"Gangs of New York" - Michael Ballhaus
"The Pianist" - Pawel Edelman
"Road to Perdition" - Conrad L. Hall

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN:
"Chicago" - Colleen Atwood
"Frida" - Julie Weiss
"Gangs of New York" - Sandy Powell
"The Hours" - Ann Roth
"The Pianist" - Anna Sheppard

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
"Bowling for Columbine" - Michael Moore and Michael Donovan
"Daughter from Danang" - Gail Dolgin and Vincente Franco
"Prisoner of Paradise" - Malcolm Clarke and Stuart Sender
"Spellbound" - Jeffrey Blitz and Sean Welch
"Winged Migration" - Jacques Perrin

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
"The Collector of Bedford Street" - Alice Elliott
"Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks" - Robert Hudson and Bobby Houston
"Twin Towers" - Bill Guttentag and Robert David Port
"Why Can't We Be a Family Again?" - Roger Weisberg and Murray Nossel

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING:
"Chicago" - Martin Walsh
"Gangs of New York" - Thelma Schoonmaker
"The Hours" - Peter Boyle
"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" - Michael Horton
"The Pianist" - Herve de Luze

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
"El Crimen del Padre Amaro" - Mexico
"Hero" - People's Republic of China
"The Man Without a Past" - Finland
"Nowhere in Africa" - Germany
"Zus & Zo" - Netherlands

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP:
"Frida" - John Jackson and Beatrice De Alba
"The Time Machine" - John M. Elliott, Jr. and Barbara Lorenz

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):
"Catch Me If You Can" - John Williams
"Far From Heaven" - Elmer Bernstein
"Frida" - Elliot Goldenthal
"The Hours" - Philip Glass
"Road to Perdition" - Thomas Newman

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG):
"Burn It Blue" from "Frida" (Music-Elliot Goldenthal, Lyric-Julie Taymor)
"Father and Daughter" from "The Wild Thornberrys" (Paul Simon)
"The Hands That Built America" from "Gangs of New York" (Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen)
"I Move On" from "Chicago" (Music-John Kander, Lyric-Fred Ebb)
"Lose Yourself" from "8 Mile" (Music-Eminem, Jeff Bass and Luis Resto, Lyric-Eminem)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
"The Cathedral" - Tomek Baginski
"The ChubbChubbs!" - Eric Armstrong
"Das Rad" - Chris Stenner and Heidi Wittlinger
"Mike's New Car" - Pete Docter and Roger Gould
"Mt. Head" - Koji Yamamura

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
"Fait D'Hiver" - Dirk Belien and Anja Daelemans
"I'll Wait for the Next One" - Philippe Orreindy and Thomas Gaudin
"Inja" - Steven Pasvolsky and Joe Weatherstone
"Johnny Flynton" - Lexi Alexander and Alexander Buono
"This Charming Man" - Martin Strange-Hansen and Mie Andreasen

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND:
"Chicago" - Michael Minkler, Dominick Tavella and David Lee
"Gangs of New York" - Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty and Ivan Sharrock
"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" - Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
"Spider-Man" - Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Ed Novick

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING:
"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" - Ethan Van der Ryn and Michael Hopkins
"Minority Report" - Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom
"Road to Perdition" - Scott A. Hecker

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS:
"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" - Jim Rygiel, Joe Letteri, Randall William Cook and Alex Funke
"Spider-Man" - John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara and John Frazier
"Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones" - Rob Coleman, Pablo Helman, John Knoll and Ben Snow